The Beaver Creek Watershed (BCW) is an ideal location to monitor the ecological impacts of climate-change because of its pronounced elevation gradient and its geographic location within the region. Elevation gradients, such as the one found in the BCW, are sensitive sentinels for detecting the differential effects climate-change. Climate-change has the potential to alter the structure, composition, and function of forest ecosystems. In northern Arizona, climate-change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of drought. The BCW is located near the northern extent of monsoonal precipitation, and thus, in combination with other sites inside and outside of Domain 13, would contribute to NEON's ability to detect and document such climate-change impacts. See Figure 6 below for predicted change in precipitation with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations. A proposed NEON Research Design titled: Climate-change: Evaluating Ecosystem Responses to Warming, Drought, Snowpack Disappearance, and Changing Fire Regimes at Regional-to-Continental Scales addresses this important research challenge. This research design proposes to further develop a predictive understanding of the responses terrestrial ecosystems are having to climate variability and climate-change at local, regional and continental scales. These research objectives are closely aligned with those of ongoing and planned research being conducted by scientists at Northern Arizona University and partner organizations.


        Northern Arizona University is one of four regional centers managing and coordinating the National Institute for Climatic Change Research (NICCR). This Institute is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER). The goal of NICCR is to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The scientific research topics being pursued by the NICCR are (a) the effects of potential climatic changes on important U.S. terrestrial ecosystems and (b) potential feedbacks from U.S. terrestrial ecosystems to the climatic system. Climate-change research on the nearby elevation gradient of the San Francisco Peaks is an example of research that has recently been funded by NICCR. This project intends to improve modeling for climate-change impacts by merging biogeographical/habitat models with dynamic vegetation modeling, and by merging climate modeling with ecosystem modeling. In addition, ongoing research will transplant micro-ecosystems consisting of grasses and soil down the elevation gradient of the San Francisco Peaks to simulate and assess changes in temperature expected with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The experiment will include various watering treatments to simulate the range of possible changes in precipitation associated with climate-change. Previous research conducted along this same elevation gradient has better informed how different tree species have responded to past variation in climate, including drought. A better understanding of species' past responses to climate-change provides crucial insight into potential future responses to climate-change. Regional drought in the last nine years is rapidly and dramatically altering Southwest ecosystems. The drought has become a catalyst, bringing researchers and land managers together to assess drought impacts. DIREnet enables researchers to address specific questions that can not be addressed without effective pan-regional coordination. These and other ongoing climate-change related research endeavors provide legacy data and models for future climate-change research in the Beaver Creek Watershed. The geographic location, pronounced elevation gradients and wealth of local expertise in the climate-change arena make Beaver Creek and the nearby San Francisco Peaks attractive places to further NEON's climate-change research agenda.